As sad as it was to see the Angels fail to play "their game" in the ALCS, what happened in 2009 still has to be put in proper perspective.
They had a terrific season under trying circumstances, overcoming tragedy and injuries that would have derailed most teams. They established themselves at several positions, especially center field, first base and shortstop, and they continue to feature one of the deeper pitching rotations in the sport. They wiped out the postseason curse that was the Red Sox, and while the Yankees demonstrated they were a better team, they weren't that much better. A little tinkering here and there and Mike Scioscia's guys could be back in the ALCS next year.
But the offseason challenge is imposing, beginning with which of their top-line free agents they'll keep or lose. Let's start with that. Here's my best, semi-educated guess on how that will go:
VLAD GUERRERO: Gone. In what was almost assuredly his final game as an Angel, Guerrero showed us the whole gamut. He had three hits, including an impressive clutch RBI against the impenetrable Mariano Rivera to cut the score to 3-2. But he also had one of his typical baserunning blunders, getting doubled off on a simple, embarrassingly short fly ball to right, and then later, lost track of the count, running to first base when it was only ball three in that at-bat against Rivera. ("What was he thinking?" asked Tim McCarver on television. Uh, yeah, Tim, that's been the problem.) Overall, though, Vlad's career here has been spectacular, and it's too bad he wasn't in Angel Stadium for one final standing ovation. He deserved it. But it's also time to cut ties with the star who hasn't really been a $16-million-a-year player for a couple of seasons now. Besides clogging the bases, he has clogged up the middle of the order, and Kendry Morales is ready to assume his spot as the team's new cleanup hitter, at least against right-handers. Don't shed too many tears for Vlad. Somebody in the American League will sign him as a DH for more than a few million dollars a year.
CHONE FIGGINS: Gone. This seemed like the toughest call of all until Figgins fell into yet another mysterious postseason funk. America has yet to see the great leadoff hitter we've watched during the regular season, and that's too bad. More than anyone, he has defined this offense, getting on base, stealing his way to second and/or third, scoring runs by the bunches. It will be difficult to replace that, but how many more playoff games can you go waiting for him to relax? The timing now seems right. Sooner or later, the Angels have to find out if Brandon Wood is a star-in-waiting or the next Dallas McPherson. They have Maicer Izturis as an insurance policy at third, so they finally can give Wood a couple of months to see if he can hit big-league pitching. Figgins, even with his .086 postseason average, will be highly coveted in the free agent market, probably getting bids as high as $10 million or $11 million a year. The Angels won't go that high. They'll probably try to make Erick Aybar their new leadoff hitter, although it will take some time to teach Erick that four balls equals a walk. Still, he's an enormously gifted young player who has been eager to learn so far. Don't be misled, though. In the regular season, at least, Figgins will be missed.
BOBBY ABREU: Stay. This is a case where the Angels only have to match his market value. That shouldn't be too difficult, unless it skyrockets out of control. Abreu loves it in Anaheim, and Scioscia already is on the record as saying he was the team MVP. Hey, it isn't every day you sign an extraordinary offensive player who can double as the hitting coach. Abreu scores 90-plus runs, drives in 100-plus and hits in the neighborhood of .300. All that while willingly talking baseball to a bunch of eager kids who are happy to listen. Now imagine what Abreu might do for someone like Wood. I'd guess $16 million across two years would be just about what it would take to keep Abreu an Angel. Fans can only hope Arte Moreno will pay it.
JOHN LACKEY: Gone. Certainly, the Angels would like to have him back. But are they likely to pay the five-year, $75 million-to-$100 million it will take to keep him? Probably not. Besides, there always has been the feeling that Lackey would like to go to somewhere he would get more consistent support offensively. Some are arguing that he's so angry Scioscia pulled him in Game 5, it convinced him to leave. I doubt that. Big John is a competitor, and he would have felt that way against anybody coming to get him in a game of that magnitude. Even without Lackey, the Angels' starting rotation is solid, and with the money they would spend on him, they can turn around and shop for some of their other needs. But when they're finished, they'd better make sure they have somebody who can be the new top-of-the-rotation guy. Whatever else you thought of Lackey, that's what he was for most of his time here.
DARREN OLIVER: Stay. The most underrated of all the Angels was their most consistent pitcher in the playoffs. Take away one bad pitch to Mark Teixeira in Game 5, and he was close to perfect. He could get some interesting offers, but at his age (39), it's likely he'd prefer to stay in an environment he knows and enjoys. The Angels would be crazy not to resign him.
All right, so let's assume that's the way it goes. Abreu and Oliver are in, Guerrero, Figgins and Lackey are out. What do the Angels do next?
Whatever it is, it should be built around getting to the World Series, not just winning the division again. What will it take to make that next large step? Well, it seems obvious, if you watched CC Sabathia work his magic, that the Angels need an overpowering No. 1 pitcher of their own.
Since there is no one better than Lackey on the market, they need to try to trade for someone like Roy Halladay, who should be available again at a much more feasible price. He'll be a free agent after 2010, so you'd try to sign him to a multiyear deal first. But if you could get him, he, more than anyone else, immediately makes the Angels a much more imposing postseason threat.
After that, there still will be a hole in the middle of the lineup. You'll need to find a new DH, someone who can bat fourth or fifth and deliver 25 to 30 homers and 90 to 100 RBIs. Matt Holliday and Jason Bay will both be out there, but the cost will be high. Can the Angels, who'll have more than a few of their young players up for arbitration, afford one of the sluggers? They will have some money to spend if Guerrero, Lackey and Figgins all leave. It's possible. It probably depends how much Moreno really wants to win.
So what would my personal 2010 opening day lineup look like? How about this:
Erick Aybar, SS; Bobby Abreu, right field; Torii Hunter, CF; Kendry Morales, 1B; Jason Bay, LF; Juan Rivera, DH; Howie Kendrick, 2B; Brandon Wood, 3B; Jeff Mathis, C. (Roy Halladay, P).
Is that a bit of an Angels' pipe dream? Probably. But then, that's what offseasons are for, aren't they?
-- Steve Bisheff