The consensus of most baseball people I've talked to is that Game 5 of the ALCS could be John Lackey's last as an Angel, barring an unlikely three-win comeback against the Yankees, of course.
As the most appealing pitcher in the free-agent market, Lackey will be heavily pursued by a number of teams, and although the Angels would like to keep him, the feeling is they won't pay the expected $75 million to $100 million over five years that his agent is likely to ask.
After what has happened in the postseason, however, you wonder if Arte Moreno should reconsider his stance.
The acquisition of Scott Kazmir was supposed to give Moreno the leverage to let Lackey go. But considering the disappointing way Kazmir has pitched in his two playoff appearances, you can't help but question if that's still the case.
One writer described the Angels' staff heading into the postseason as four No. 2 starters. I don't agree with that. When he's sound, Lackey, who was brilliant in Game 1 of he ALDS, is a No. 1 starter. It's just that he's not quite at the same elite level as the CC Sabathias, Cliff Lees and Roy Halladays.
If it wasn't clear before, it should be now. The Angels have to build their team for the postseason. Their current talent, along with a farm system that is continuing to produce good prospects, will allow them to be contenders for quite a while. But winning the AL West is one thing.
Getting to the World Series is another, especially when the payroll-heavy Yankees are in the same league.
It would appear obvious that, pitching-wise, Moreno's team has two options. Either re-sign Lackey, or, perhaps the more appealing alternative, make an all-out bid in the off-season for someone like Halladay, who is still rumored to be available in trade. In fact, the Blue Jays probably will be more anxious than ever to trade their ace before he leaves for free agency and they get nothing in return.
This is not to say the Angels can't repeat as division champs with a rotation of Kazmir, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana and, say, Sean O'Sullivan. They almost assuredly can.
But they probably can't make it to the World Series, or even back to the ALCS, without Lackey or one of the more elite pitchers at the front end of their rotation.
They came close to signing Sabathia last year. But as we're now seeing, close isn't much of a consolation.
They'll either need to keep Lackey or find someone even more imposing to return this deep into October in 2010.
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Several readers have written reminding me that I was the one who agreed it was the right move not to include Erick Aybar in any midseason trade for Toronto's Halladay. That's true. Aybar has come into his own this season and has established himself as an All-Star caliber shortstop for what should be many years to come.
But that doesn't mean the Angels shouldn't have tried other possibilities in exploring a Halladay trade. Or, if that wasn't working, go harder after Cleveland's former Cy Young Award winner Lee.
Go back and look at what the Phillies gave up for Lee. The Angels could have presented any number of more attractive offers to land him. But did they? We don't know. If they had, it's difficult to believe the Indians wouldn't have at least seriously considered them.
The point is, you desperately needed to go get an elite No. 1 pitcher, and you didn't. And now your team is paying the price.
-- Steve Bisheff